Bearish hypothesis for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

Despite there being signs of a potential rise in the price of BTC, a bear hypothesis is increasingly circulating.

However, it is a non-trivial hypothesis, not simplistic, but relatively complex.

It therefore requires a slightly detailed explanation.

The consolidation phase of Bitcoin (BTC) price

First of all, it is necessary to highlight that the price of Bitcoin has not crashed.

While from mid-February until today, that is, in about two months, the main index of the US stock markets (S&P500) has lost 12%, with a peak at -20%, thus entering a bear-market, for Bitcoin the situation has been slightly different.

Of course, in terms of percentages, the losses of BTC have been greater, but it really makes little sense to compare the volatility of the price of Bitcoin with that of the S&P500 index.

Instead, it makes sense to compare the current levels with those before the elezione di Trump.

The S&P500 index at the end of October 2024 was around 5,700 points, and after reaching the all-time high on February 19, 2025, above 6,140 points, it plummeted to 4,835 points on April 7. This is an uncommon downward trajectory for this index, although in recent days it has returned to about 5,400 points.

Instead, the price of BTC at the end of October was below $70,000, and after reaching the all-time high of $109,000 on January 20, it has never returned to those levels.

The bottom of the current phase stopped just below $75,000 on April 7th, and now it has returned well above $80,000.

This dynamic cannot be defined as a true collapse, given the history of Bitcoin, but more of a correction that could also be only temporary.

The bearish hypothesis: can we still expect a bull-run in the price of BTC?

However, according to the head of research at 10x Research, Markus Thielen, the price of BTC may have entered a consolidation phase, potentially long, with moreover short-term bear indicators.

First of all, it should be highlighted how the current price level is perfectly in line with that of February 26, therefore it is possible that the consolidation phase began more than a month and a half ago, and perhaps it is still ongoing.

However, in the short or medium-short term, the trend still seems to be bearish.

In his analysis, published a couple of days ago, Thielen argues that the on-chain data indicate a market context more bear than bull.

The analyst from 10x Research points out that since the beginning of the year, the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs amount to only 225 million dollars, so much so that they could become negative at any moment, as they are on track to close the third consecutive month in negative.

Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the Trump trade war continues to have serious repercussions on the financial markets in general, and in particular on risk-on assets like BTC.

The key question is whether the new Bitcoin buyers, who have entered in the last fifteen months thanks to spot ETFs, will return, as they seem to be leaving, and if it is enough to justify a bullish outlook.

The forecasts on a medium/long-term time horizon

This hypothesis, however, is limited to analyzing the price trend in the short or at most medium-short term, while in the medium/long term things could be different.

There are indeed other forecasts from other analysts that support the idea of a bear hypothesis in the short term. However, this hypothesis often only extends until the end of the month, adding that from May onwards things could change.

The hypothesis of the consolidation phase is also shared by other analysts, with a time horizon extending until June.

So if in the short term one can expect a further decline in the price of Bitcoin, in the medium-short term one can expect the consolidation phase to continue for a few more months.

Instead, in the medium/long term, things could change, even significantly.

In particular, the second half of the year could differ from the first, also because in the past something like this has often happened.

The influence of the American dollar

To tell the truth, several analysts were expecting a worse performance already in the past weeks.

In March, in fact, the hypothesis of a first drop below $75,000 followed by a second drop below $70,000 was circulating.

However, despite a couple of brief dips below $75,000 having already occurred, in reality, the $80,000 is holding, with few and brief exceptions.

At this point, the hypothesis of a return below $70,000 is also losing strength, net of potential brief temporary spikes perhaps due only to the forced liquidation of leveraged long positions.

What could hold up BTC might be the US dollar, which has weakened significantly in recent months.

If the Dollar Index was around 110 points in January, it has now fallen below 100 points, a level not seen since July 2023.

In the medium/long term, the trend of Bitcoin’s price seems to be inversely correlated to that of the Dollar Index (DXY), and to be honest, it has not yet reacted with an increase during this actual collapse of DXY.

Therefore, it might have been the weakening of the dollar that prevented the price of BTC from crashing, and if the declining phase of DXY continues, it is possible to expect that sooner or later it will have positive effects on Bitcoin. For this reason, it is advisable to clearly distinguish the short-term trend from the medium/long-term trend at this moment.