Bitcoin consolidates above key supports: pause phase or start of a new momentum?

After the rally that pushed prices close to $124,000, Bitcoin is taking a break. The 4-hour chart of BTC/USD shows an orderly consolidation above important technical supports, indicating that the underlying trend remains positive. However, the market, at least for now, seems to be waiting for a clear signal to resume.

Let’s see together where we are, what the indicators tell us, and what scenarios we can expect in the coming days.

Bitcoin: The trend remains positive, but the pace has changed

In the last 4 hours, Bitcoin closed at $118,191, with a slight increase (+0.81%) and a range between 116,624 and 118,191. The price remains above the 50 and 100 period exponential moving averages (at 117,659 and 115,720 respectively), which have been supporting the courses for weeks.

The peak reached in mid-July, around 124,000, marked the end of the acceleration phase: from there, a physiological correction began, which so far has stopped at levels consistent with a trend that is still bull.

Anyone looking at the chart cannot fail to notice that the movement is orderly, without collapses and with decreasing volumes. Everything suggests a pause rather than a true bull or bear reversal.

The indicators tell of a market in balance

Moving averages: the levels to defend

The exponential moving averages at 50 and 100 periods are still well aligned, with the EMA50 acting as the first level of support. For now, Bitcoin remains above both, and this is a clear signal: the underlying trend is still bull. The EMA100, further away, is the true dividing line not to lose in order to maintain the technical structure.

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Bollinger Bands: volatility in contraction

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After the expansion of the bands during the rally, the channel has now narrowed. The price moves between the median and the lower band, in a typical consolidation phase that allows the market to catch its breath. A decisive return above the upper band, which now passes at 119.190, could be the first clue that the pause is ending.

RSI: balance between buyers and sellers

The 14-period RSI indicator is practically in the middle, at 50.6. There is neither euphoria nor fear, just balance. During the rally days, it had risen into overbought territory, above 70. Now it has cooled down, but without showing signs of extreme weakness. A return above 60 would be an interesting signal of renewed strength.

MACD: momentum decreasing, but less bear pressure

The MACD has moved into negative territory after the last high, but the histogram shows that the bear pressure is decreasing. The two lines (MACD and Signal) are getting closer, which could mean that the worst of the correction is already over and stabilization is being prepared.

Volumes: silence after the noise

Volumes have decreased compared to the peaks seen during the rise. This is normal: when a market corrects without large selling volumes, it is a good sign. However, if strong volumes were to arrive during a decline, it would be more concerning.

Supports and resistances to watch on the price of Bitcoin

Supports

• EMA50: 117.659, first level to monitor.
• Lower Bollinger band: 116.985, static support.
• EMA100: 115.720, decisive level.

Resistances

• Median of the Bollinger: 118.088, small intraday barrier.
• Upper Bollinger band: 119.190, key to unlocking the trend.
• Recent high: 124,000, long-term target.

What can we expect now?

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Positive scenario

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If Bitcoin manages to break the upper Bollinger band with an increase in volumes, the market could start running towards recent highs again. In this case, we would also see the RSI rise above 60 and the MACD turn positive.

Neutral scenario

It is possible that the price remains for a few more days in a channel between 116.985 and 119.190. This consolidation would not be concerning: on the contrary, it would help to build a solid foundation for the next bull or bear move.

Negative scenario

A potential break below the EMA100 would be a bad signal, because it would mean that the buyers have given up and that the corrective phase is becoming deeper.

Conclusion: calm, but vigilant attention

At this moment, Bitcoin is demonstrating technical solidity. The consolidation above the supports is a sign of market maturity, which seems intent on not giving up the ground gained.

For those who operate, this is the moment to observe the key levels closely: EMA50 and EMA100 below, 119.190 and 124.000 above. Those who prefer prudence can wait for a confirmed breakout with volumes before taking a position. On the other hand, those with a more aggressive approach can take advantage of any returns towards the supports to enter, with tight stops.

In any case, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, but the market needs a catalyst to restart decisively. In the coming days, we will see if it will be able to do so.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risks and always requires a careful assessment of one’s risk tolerance.