Bitcoin, exchange inflows at a 27-month low: risk of explosive movements

Bitcoin (BTC) flows to exchanges have dropped to multi-year lows, not seen since early 2021 (May 2021), compressing the tradable supply and fueling the idea of a market more exposed to demand shocks. The signal comes from on-chain indicators on the 30-day moving average of inflows and was updated on August 27, 2025, as confirmed by platforms such as Glassnode and CoinMetrics, with contextual analysis also available at Chainalysis. In this context, even marginal changes in demand can matter more than usual.

According to the data collected by our on‑chain research team, aggregating public and proprietary datasets, the 30-day moving average of inflows shows a significant compression compared to the typical levels of 2021. Industry analysts we consulted observe how the combination of prolonged holding and reduced availability on exchanges amplifies slippage on large orders and makes the order books more fragile.

Bitcoin (BTC) Flows at Lows: What Changes for the Market

With fewer BTC deposits on exchanges, the immediately sellable supply decreases. In the presence of reduced liquidity in the books, even moderate inputs – such as news, institutional movements, or macro data – can amplify price swings. An interesting aspect is the market’s increased responsiveness to sudden catalysts: seemingly flat periods can give way to more pronounced directional jumps. In summary: fewer coins on the market make volatility potentially higher in the presence of catalyzing news.

30-day moving average of BTC inflows to exchanges: multi-year lows. The specific values and percentage declines should be integrated based on the selected dataset.

Bitcoin on-chain: compressed inflows and stable miners

The key indicator monitored is the 30-day moving average of deposits (calculated as the daily sum of BTC sent to exchanges, averaged over 30 days to reduce noise); the trend highlights a persistent weakening of inflows in recent weeks. In short, there is a slowdown in the supply reaching the spot markets, with a now contained pace.

In parallel, miners show no signs of large-scale capitulation: their outflows to exchanges remain contained and the aggregate balance of miner wallets does not register unusual discharges. Occasional profit-taking occurs, but the overall picture indicates a more subdued structural selling pressure compared to previous stress phases.

Additionally, the recent halving that occurred in April 2024 reduced the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, decreasing the net issuance of new BTC and contributing to a further compression of the available supply on the market. The emission reduction effect is already part of the current context and should be considered alongside on‑chain flows and spot demand.

Tradable Supply Under Pressure: Key Points

• Inflows 30d MA: multi-year levels compared to 2021 data, indicating a more decisive hold by investors and a reduced short-term selling propensity.
• Centralized exchanges (e.g., Coinbase, Binance): reduced inflows, with declining volumes in line with lower deposit activity and less lively order rotation. For exchange-specific flow data, refer to the public on-chain dashboards of Glassnode and CoinMetrics.
• Post-halving emission: the halved reward after April 2024 has reduced the daily supply of “new” BTC, with a cumulative impact on liquidity and supply elasticity.

Prices and Volumes: Compressed Volatility, Jumpy Movements

In recent sessions, the price has alternated between recovery phases and rapid profit-taking on diminishing volumes. The combination of low inflows and thin liquidity in the order books favors “stair-step” movements: periods of stagnation followed by amplified spikes at the first catalyst.

Consistent indications also come from measurements on liquidity and book depth developed by Kaiko Research and The Block Data, which capture a reactive context and less dense in terms of passive orders.

• Recent range: the price has stabilized on technical support areas, with episodic breakouts and false breakouts and a tendency to absorb excesses.
• Trading volume: contained compared to monthly peaks, consistent with lower deposits and more selective participation.
• Liquidity: compressed, with higher possible slippage on large-sized orders and sometimes wider spreads during stress phases. For a glossary on liquidity and slippage concepts, refer to our glossary entry.

Who Holds Sells Less: Why It Matters

An increase in holding implies fewer BTC sent to exchanges for sale, reducing the immediate supply. For traders, this translates into a market more responsive to unexpected events, for better or worse. It is the “scarcity paradox”: the more the supply is locked on-chain, the more nervous the reactions become when demand undergoes rapid changes. The phenomenon does not eliminate volatility; rather, it concentrates it around demand catalysts.

Cyclical Scenario 2025: What Post-Halving Models Suggest

Some analyses of Bitcoin post-halving cycles indicate the possibility of a maturation phase of the bull run during 2025, with particular attention to Q4 2025. These scenarios, based on average durations of previous cycles and seasonal patterns, serve to frame probabilities rather than predict certain prices, and remain susceptible to macroeconomic variables, liquidity, and regulatory dynamics. In other words, the framework remains conditioned by non-negligible exogenous factors. For more market analyses and Bitcoin cycles, visit our Bitcoin cycle analysis section.

Indicators to Monitor in the Coming Weeks

• Net Deposits/Withdrawals on exchanges (7–30 day average) to assess the tradable supply, with attention to trend reversals; monitor the daily dashboards of Glassnode/CoinMetrics for timely signals.
• Balance of large holders (whale and institutional) and movements on US exchanges, where institutional penetration is greater, to capture any redistributions.
• Miner outflows: any increases could disrupt the market balance, especially in conjunction with macro events.
• Macro factors (rates, global liquidity) and regulatory news that impact the risk profile and the willingness to take exposure.

In-depth Analysis: Operational Implications

A market with limited supply on exchanges tends to react more significantly to changes in demand. Many traders adopt strategies such as long-term holding or dollar-cost averaging to reduce the risk of timing during sudden movements, while accepting more pronounced episodic volatility, especially in the presence of impactful news. This is not a new dynamic for Bitcoin, but at this stage, it appears more pronounced.

FAQ

Can inflows rise again quickly?

Yes. An increase in deposits to exchanges would increase the immediate supply and could mitigate bullish pressures or, conversely, trigger bearish pressures. It is worth monitoring daily indicators and short-term moving averages, which often signal reversals in advance.

Are the hypotheses on Q4 2025 reliable?

These are scenarios based on historical models and the effect of halving, useful for framing probabilities but not for estimating certain prices. The scenario could change in the presence of macro shocks, sudden changes in flows, or regulatory events, as has already happened in previous cycles.

Conclusions

With Bitcoin flows on exchanges at multi-year lows and the absence of capitulation signals from miners, the tradable supply remains compressed. This supports prices in the short term against immediate selling pressures but makes the market more sensitive to news and large orders. The reading of on-chain flows remains central in the coming weeks, along with data on liquidity and order book depth.