Bitcoin: has the bullrun officially returned?

In recent days, the price of Bitcoin has risen above $90,000, and many are wondering if the bullrun has truly returned.

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The bullrun of Bitcoin

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The latest bullrun of Bitcoin started on November 6, 2024, with the news of Donald Trump’s electoral victory in the USA, and in fact, it ended shortly after mid-December.

Practically, it lasted just under a month and a half.

Subsequently, a long period of lateralization around $100,000 began, ending in late February.

It was a relatively short bullrun, according to the norm, because often Bitcoin bullruns last several months.

However, it had the strength to bring for the first time in history the price of BTC above $100,000, even though it always remained below $110,000.

The price correction of Bitcoin after the latest bullrun

Generally, after a bullrun there is always a correction.

This time, however, the actual correction started just over two months after the end of the bullrun. In other words, the bullrun was not immediately followed by a correction, but by a period of high lateralization that lasted for more than two months.

At the end of February 2025, however, a correction indeed began.

The most interesting thing about this correction is that it did not manage to erase all the gains from the last bullrun.

In fact, before Trump’s electoral victory, the price of BTC was around $69,000, and after the correction, it barely returned below $75,000.

For example, the S&P500 index has reached a 13% lower minimum compared to the end of October, while Bitcoin is still up by 7%.

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The rebound

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The correction seems to have concluded last week.

Starting from Friday, with the markets closed for holidays, the price of Bitcoin had stabilized just below $85,000, and then rose above $90,000 by Monday.

$90,000 was a level that had not been reached since the early days of March, when the correction had already begun but there was a first unsuccessful attempt at a rebound.

There is, however, a striking difference compared to that moment.

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The dollar

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Between the end of February and the beginning of March, the Dollar Index (DXY) was still around 105 points.

At the beginning of March, the second phase of decline began, after an initial drop from 110 to 105 points, but in the meantime, the flight from risk-on was intensifying with the announcement of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.

The really significant drop in the DXY arrived from the beginning of April, bringing it below 100 points, a level that hadn’t been seen since July 2023.

With such a weak dollar, it seems really difficult for the current Bitcoin bull to not succeed.

A new bullrun for Bitcoin?

In light of this, if the flight from risk-on were to stop, a new Bitcoin bullrun could also begin.

In 2017, for example, the second part of the bullrun started right at the end of April, and that was Trump’s first year in the White House.

The decline of the Dollar Index favors this hypothesis, but there is the risk of a rebound in the medium-short term.

A rise of DXY above 101 points could negatively affect the price of Bitcoin, even if not necessarily immediately.

Therefore, the current rebound of Bitcoin could continue for a few days, but it might be followed by a mini-correction if DXY rises in the coming weeks.