Bitcoin moves away from the ATH: when will the next one occur?

The historical maximum price of Bitcoin (ATH, All Time High) was recorded just ten days ago, in mid-July 2025, above $123,000. 

However, the price of Bitcoin has now fallen below $118,000, with the possibility of falling further. 

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Why?

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The ATH of Bitcoin

To fully understand this dynamic, it is necessary to trace back to what led to the new ATH of BTC.

The previous all-time high dated back to May, when it reached $112,000.

At that point, there was first a small correction, and then a medium-duration phase of lateralization around $105,000. 

During the lateralization phase, the Dollar Index resumed falling after a brief rebound, and this theoretically should have favored a rise in the price of Bitcoin, which, however, did not happen immediately.

In particular, at the end of June, while the dollar was weakening, the price of BTC should have taken advantage and risen, but instead it continued to move sideways until July 8. 

Only on July 9 did Bitcoin finally start to rise again, and within just five days it recorded the new ATH above 123,000$. 

The decline in the price of Bitcoin

The problem is that, in the meantime, during those five days the Dollar Index recorded a new rebound. 

In particular, from June 20 to July 1, it had dropped from almost 99 points to less than 97, but from July 2 to 15, it then rose again to almost 99 points, practically returning to the starting point of this bull and bear market fluctuation.

Just as the prezzo di Bitcoin at the end of June did not immediately react to the decline of the Dollar Index, reacting only later, it now seems that it is reacting with a delay to the recent small rebound of the dollar. 

It should be remembered that the trend of the price of BTC tends to be inversely correlated with that of the Dollar Index, but in the medium term and not necessarily in the short term. 

The holding of the price

At this point, one might also expect the decline of Bitcoin to continue, but instead, looking at the chart, it seems to have stopped. 

In fact, from July 15 to today it is essentially moving sideways around $118,000, with brief episodes below this threshold. 

However, there might be a very simple explanation for this seemingly anomalous resilience. 

In fact, the Dollar Index seems to have started to decline again. 

While on July 18 it was still at 98.5 points, yesterday it dropped to 97.2, and it seems it could drop further towards 97 points, or slightly below. 

If this actually happened, it would effectively return to the levels of the first of July. 

It is possible that the crypto markets are already pricing in this eventuality, not only because it has been talked about for days now, but also because there is even the hypothesis that in the medium term the dollar could weaken much more.

The hypothesis of the very weak dollar

The Dollar Index measures the changes in the strength of the US dollar compared to a basket of other currencies. 

Starting from the great financial crisis of 2008, the US dollar began a long phase of strengthening that has now lasted for seventeen years. 

This phase has had negative effects over the years on the trade balance of the USA, increasingly favoring imports and disadvantaging exports. 

One of Donald Trump’s goals is to rebalance the trade balance of the USA, reducing the gap between imports and exports. 

The most effective way to do this would be not only to stop the strengthening of the dollar that has been going on for seventeen years, but perhaps even to start a new phase of weakening. 

Forecasts on the Dollar Index

Currently, the baseline of the ascending trend of the Dollar Index in the long term is set around 96 points. 

On July 1st, in fact, the Dollar Index fell below 97 points, so much so that it seemed it could approach that threshold. 

In reality, in June, for a brief moment, it had even touched it, reaching exactly 96 points, but at that point, it bounced back almost immediately, quickly returning to 97. 

For months now, the markets have been expecting a breakthrough downward of the 96-point mark, precisely because if it were to happen in a solid and powerful way, one could indeed expect the end of the ascending cycle that has lasted for 17 years. 

It is possible that the target is the 90 points reached during the bottom of 2021, when however the largest QE in the history of the Fed was underway. 

Therefore, it might not be easy to reach those levels; however, it is conceivable that Trump’s goal is at least to bring it down below 96 points and keep it there. 

Bitcoin Forecasts: Will It Reach New ATH?

If the Dollar Index were to return to 96 points, it is possible that the price of Bitcoin could reach new ATH, even if not immediately afterwards. 

But if it were to drop significantly below that threshold, and stay there for quite a while, the price of Bitcoin could also end up rising well above the current all-time highs. 

According to some forecasts, it is possible to imagine that by the end of the year BTC could even push above $150,000, or perhaps even above $200,000, with some particularly optimistic analysts seeing it even above $250,000. 

Currently on the Dollar Index there is an ongoing medium-short term descending trend that has been in place since January, and in the coming weeks or months it could indeed cause the long-term ascending trend that has lasted for 17 years to collapse, should it continue.

It is therefore necessary to closely follow these dynamics because they could prove to be very interesting even for BTC holders.