Disclaimer

Altcoin Stories does not endorse any content or product on this website. While we aim at providing you with all important information that we could obtain, readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to any company and carry full responsibility for their decisions, nor can any article be considered as investment advice.

Light
Dark

Bitcoin replicates the 2024 pattern: get ready for the BTC rally

A strategic support tested by Bitcoin could be the signal that many were waiting for a new phase of price discovery, according to the echo of the dynamics seen in November 2024, when the price rose from $70,000 to $108,000 after a similar technical structure. Why is the current support of Bitcoin so relevant? The …

analisi pattern prezzo bitcoin

A strategic support tested by Bitcoin could be the signal that many were waiting for a new phase of price discovery, according to the echo of the dynamics seen in November 2024, when the price rose from $70,000 to $108,000 after a similar technical structure.

Why is the current support of Bitcoin so relevant?

The most discussed parallel at the moment is with the confirmation of support that occurred in November 2024. At that time, after breaking a strong resistance, Bitcoin had confirmed the holding of the area around $70,000, paving the way for a rally of over 50%. The current retracement is attracting the attention of traders like Galaxy, for whom the chart configuration suggests that history might repeat itself.

On Bitcoin now the issue is the holding of a trendline that, unlike the one in November, is ascending and not descending. In case of success in consolidating above this line, many analysts expect a new phase of price discovery. The key support monitored in recent sessions was located just above $112,000.

Is Bitcoin at risk of new lows in the short term?

Despite the volatility at its lowest, several analysts have denied the possibility that Bitcoin could return to the lower levels of the beginning of the year. The high at $109,300 recorded in January represents for many the “ultimate” support area.

During this market cycle, every time Bitcoin has generated a swing low (April, June, and briefly in August), the price has not returned to visit those lows: a sequence that, if confirmed, would exclude new violent drawdowns like the one seen after the all-time high in January (-30%).

“`html

BTC/USD Chart, Coinbase market. Source: TradingView

{
“lineWidth”: 2,
“lineType”: 0,
“chartType”: “candlesticks”,
“fontColor”: “rgb(106, 109, 120)”,
“gridLineColor”: “rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.06)”,
“volumeUpColor”: “rgba(34, 171, 148, 0.5)”,
“volumeDownColor”: “rgba(247, 82, 95, 0.5)”,
“backgroundColor”: “#0F0F0F”,
“widgetFontColor”: “#DBDBDB”,
“upColor”: “#22ab94”,
“downColor”: “#f7525f”,
“borderUpColor”: “#22ab94”,
“borderDownColor”: “#f7525f”,
“wickUpColor”: “#22ab94”,
“wickDownColor”: “#f7525f”,
“colorTheme”: “dark”,
“isTransparent”: false,
“locale”: “en”,
“chartOnly”: false,
“scalePosition”: “right”,
“scaleMode”: “Normal”,
“fontFamily”: “-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Trebuchet MS, Roboto, Ubuntu, sans-serif”,
“valuesTracking”: “1”,
“changeMode”: “price-and-percent”,
“symbols”: [
[
“COINBASE:BTCUSD|1D”
]
],
“dateRanges”: [
“1d|1”,
“1m|30”,
“3m|60”,
“12m|1D”,
“60m|1W”,
“all|1M”
],
“fontSize”: “10”,
“headerFontSize”: “medium”,
“autosize”: false,
“width”: 800,
“height”: 500,
“noTimeScale”: false,
“hideDateRanges”: false,
“hideMarketStatus”: false,
“hideSymbolLogo”: false
}


“`

How does the macroeconomic and geopolitical context affect?

The comparison between the breakout of 2024 and the current situation is not identical. The trendline today is ascending and the market is affected by headwinds: US trade tariffs and general geopolitical uncertainties are reducing the appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Nonetheless, the dominant consensus among operators remains that a directional breakout is imminent, given that the last few weeks have seen a historical compression of volatility.

Can Bitcoin volatility explode soon?

Statistically, periods of low volatility have often preceded strong price movements. In 2024, the consolidation phase between $70,000 and $73,800 was abruptly interrupted with a rally of extension beyond the expectations of many analysts.

Today the focus is on exiting the current phase: a confirmed support could trigger a return to “price discovery” and attempts at new all-time highs, while a loss of the ascending trendline would increase the risks of slipping below the January highs. Currently, the most likely scenario for many remains that of a rally: 

“L’ultima volta che sembrava così era prima della corsa da $70k a $100k”,

wrote Galaxy to its followers.

What scenarios open up for traders and investors?

If the structure is respected, one might expect a target in the $108,000 – $112,000 area, partially replicating the bull run of 2024, but with increasing risks due to the macro framework.

The opportunities to achieve superior returns multiply in scenarios like this: recent history teaches that the speed of movements can surprise, and Bitcoin in the “retest” phase tends to move explosively after confirming its hold.

What to monitor in the coming weeks?

The key levels to follow are:

  • $112,000: crucial support area of the current market phase
  • $109,300: January high, hypothesized as a turning point
  • Ascending trendline: loss or break could radically change the direction
  • $108,000: historical high to use as the first target if the bull run resumes

Always keep an eye on macro news – such as the new US tariffs or inflation data – and the possible short-term reactions on the cryptocurrency markets. Compressed volatility can easily degenerate into strong spikes.

Impact and prospects: the future of Bitcoin is being decided now

The test of the dynamic support will set a precedent: a bullish breakout driven by the same logic of the bull market 2024 would have enormous impacts on confidence and capital inflows, in the midst of the spot ETF season and with Trump as president. However, the fragility of the macro context and the absence of explicit signals increase the risks for those who expose themselves too early.

The future of Bitcoin now depends on the response to the technical levels monitored worldwide. A new journey into uncharted territories? Or a prolonged pause before a trend change? 

What to read next...