Odds of US Buying Bitcoin in 2025 Only 30%, Says Bloomberg Analyst

Beyond further legitimizing the asset, one of the main reasons Bitcoin proponents have been pushing for a U.S. reserve is the hope that the world power will actively participate in the market, with the significant demand boosting prices.

While President Donald Trump has established a Bitcoin reserve through an executive order, whether the government will buy any fresh assets remains unclear.

For context, the order establishes a reserve out of the government’s holdings from seizures while directing the Secretary of Treasury and Secretary of Commerce to pursue “budget neutral strategies” to add to the stash. But what these strategies will entail remains anyone’s guess.

Amid these lingering questions, a Bloomberg analyst has urged investors to lower their expectations.
“Little Chance”
“30%.”

That’s how much chance there is of the U.S. government adding to its Bitcoin reserve in 2025, according to a March 21 note from a Bloomberg legal analyst shared by Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck.

The analyst stressed that “there is little chance” the government would purchase Bitcoin or any other crypto asset for its reserve in 2025. If President Trump had wanted to, he could have done so through mechanisms like the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

This $39 billion fund is available to the Secretary of the Treasury and can be used for a variety of purposes, including stabilizing the dollar or offering foreign aid.

The analyst also argued that going through Congress was unlikely to yield any result until at least the mid-term elections in 2026. They stressed that any present bills to codify Trump’s executive order “are mostly symbolic and unlikely to become law.”

This stance is likely based on the Republican party’s slim majority in Congress and expected opposition from Democrats. In a March 13 letter, a group of House Democrats urged the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, to cease all efforts to establish Trump’s Bitcoin strategic reserve, criticizing it as an attempt to benefit donors.

However, not all analysts share the pessimism of the Bloomberg legal analyst.
VanEck Puts Bitcoin Odds Higher
“I think we are closer to 50-60%,” VanEck’s Matt Sigel asserted in response to a question about where he placed the odds of the U.S. government adding to the Trump-established Bitcoin reserve in 2025.

The recent debate comes even as Bo Hines, the executive director of the president’s crypto working group, continues to offer hope to Bitcoin proponents. In a recent interview with Crypto In America host Eleanor Terrett, Hines asserted that there have already been “countless ideas” for the government to add to its Bitcoin reserve, noting that “the best ideas” will be implemented.