Very conflicting forecasts on Bitcoin

These days, there are many forecasts circulating about the trend of Bitcoin‘s price, but they are very conflicting. 

Both in the short term and in the medium term, there is really a lot of discrepancy between the more bullish ones and the more bearish ones, while the differences only diminish when it comes to the long term. 

Short-term forecasts on Bitcoin

Perhaps in the short term, the bearish forecasts prevail over the bullish ones. 

However, it is a decidedly limited prevalence, given that there are also many bullish forecasts even regarding the short term. 

Certainly a key day could be the day after tomorrow, Wednesday, March 19, because the Fed will announce its decision on interest rates. 

Although it is practically certain that it will decide not to touch them, what the markets are very interested in is the attitude towards hypothetical cuts in the coming months. 

Since it is not known what the Fed will say, uncertainty about short-term forecasts reigns supreme. 

At this moment, the markets are opting for three cuts of 25 basis points during 2025, with the first one in June. Should Powell’s words cast doubt on this forecast, the markets might react poorly, especially since the only realistic alternative seems to be the maintenance of a restrictive monetary policy for a longer period, meaning with a smaller number of cuts. 

It is possible that until that moment the markets will go into wait-and-see mode, and only after hearing Powell’s words will they decide how to act. 

The bearish sentiment

All this leads to the belief that starting from Wednesday, volatility may return. 

The doubt is that it may be bearish, also because the price of gold continues to rise, indicating a continuous flight from risk-on (Bitcoin and the US stock market) towards risk-off.

The markets are afraid that Trump’s trade policies might end up triggering a recession, and they react by buying the safe haven par excellence, namely gold.

This is not a good sign at all, especially because it has been three months now that the price of gold oscillates solely and exclusively within an ascending channel that continues to hold, bringing it higher and higher. 

Despite this leading many to be bearish in the short term, there are also those who believe that a rise in the price of Bitcoin may occur soon, imagining that the decline has already been abundant and sufficient.

The medium-term forecasts on the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

The uncertainty becomes even greater if attention is shifted to what might happen in the coming months, until the end of the year. 

In this case, there are those who believe that, regardless of what happens in the coming weeks, the price of BTC could recover in the coming months and return to its highs. However, there are also those who believe that the current phase of weakness could continue until June, especially since May is historically a difficult month for financial markets. 

Many, however, seem convinced that not only is Bitcoin not yet in a bear-market, but that it is not even really heading towards a bear-market. 

In other words, a certain confidence seems to prevail regarding the second half of the year. 

The greater uncertainty of the forecasts seems to be concentrated on the trend from now until June, while regarding the second half of 2025, the uncertainty seems to decrease. 

As for long-term forecasts, it doesn’t seem that much has changed recently.

Bitcoin: the hypotheses 120,000$ and 75,000$ 

One of the ipotesi bullish a medio termine is that of the economist Timothy Peterson, known for having written the paper “Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value”. 

Peterson claims that at the beginning of June the price of Bitcoin could be above $120,000.

He is not the only one with similar ideas, because there are also other analysts who argue that the current phase of difficulty may end soon, and start a new rise. 

It must be said, however, that there seem to be more hypotheses that the current declining phase could last a little longer and bring the price around 75.00$ or 70,000$.

For example, the analyst Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin price corrections are the norm, not the exception, even within bull runs.

At this point, it is reasonable to imagine that the current one might not be over yet, especially since the $80,000 mark is near, and if this level does not hold, the next stop could indeed be around $75,000 

In this regard, a whale has opened a short position with 40x leverage on BTC of 368 million dollars at 84,043$, risking forced liquidation if the price were to rise above 85,592$.

According to Markus Thielen, the current Bitcoin price chart resembles a “High and Tight Flag,” which is a pattern showing signs of weakness within a bull phase. The hypothesis in this case is that BTC has entered a consolidation phase that could last for months.